Predicting The Future
Do you believe the stock market is going to average double-digit returns anytime soon? Do you worry about your money going backward in a Bear market? Do you worry about the next 9/11 or next war that will erupt around the world that will affect oil prices and the stock markets in a negative manner? Can you predict when the next downturn or upswing in the market will come or when the next hurricane or earthquake will come? Can you predict who will be elected as our next president and Congress and what financial policies they will implement which will have far-reaching effects on our economy?
We are poking a little bit of fun at all the variables of investing to make a point. If we are honest with ourselves, we will admit that none of us knows which individual stocks or mutual funds will be going up and down or when the next big national or world issue will come up that will affect our actively traded money.
20-year returns
-Did you know that the S&P 500 stock index had returns of 5.62% from 1998-2018?*
-Did you know that the average mutual fund investor averaged only a 3.88% return (31% less than the S&P 500) from 1998-2018? (2019 DALBAR study)
Buying high and selling low
When you read the next few paragraphs, you will understand the above statistics; and many of you will be nodding your heads in agreement with a painful smile appearing on your face.
It is our opinion that over time the stock market will go up but that we don’t really know which stocks will be the big winners.
For example, won’t you agree that you and your financial advisor would have purchased Wal-Mart—one of largest companies in the world, consistent earner, paid dividends in July of 2003 instead of K-Mart—just emerging from bankruptcy, big marketing tie to Martha Stewart (who was looking at jail time), no anticipated dividends. How would you have done? Wal-Mart went from $56.08 to $51.76 and K-Mart went from $24.20 to $76.80.
Why did the average investor from 1998-2018 have returns of 3.88% when the average mutual fund returned 5.61%? Because we are professionals at buying high and selling low.
A better way?
Would you have been happy over the last 10-15 years with a 5-7% guaranteed rate of return* on an accumulation value (not walk away value) used to calculate/provide for you a guaranteed lifetime income* you can never outlive? Most people would say yes! If you are interested in learning how to grow your wealth in this guaranteed manner, please click here.
No downside risk and tax-free growth and withdrawals
If you had money in the stock market over the last 10+ years, the chances it went backward 46% from 2000-2002 and 50+% from 2007-March of 2009 is significant.
The bottom line is that no one can predict the future. Many people are tired of chasing returns and the next hot fund while hoping the next stock market crash doesn’t come when they are trying to build wealth.
